A market in limbo: A realtor’s perspective from the front lines

Last week, I sat across the kitchen table from a young couple, Priya and Jaden. They were hopeful first-time buyers, pre-approved back in May, and now wondered, “Should we wait for rates to drop?” I had just read TD economist Maria Solovieva’s comment: “Canada is not strong enough to cheer, not weak enough to cut.” Honestly, that summed things up perfectly, not just for the economy, but for every buyer and seller I’ve met this month.

The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.75% wasn’t surprising for most economists, but for consumers? It feels more personal. Every rate announcement affects real estate decisions; mortgage payments, home values, and confidence, and right now, it’s a mixed picture.

Buyers stay cautious but keep exploring the market

Earlier this year, we saw a short-lived wave of optimism. Buyers slowly re-entered the market, anticipating consistent price reductions throughout the summer. However, that optimism is now fading once again. Business confidence and consumer sentiment have dropped, according to recent surveys. Even retail sales are beginning to show signs of fatigue.

Nevertheless, that hesitation remains visible in buyer behaviour. People are shopping but taking longer to make decisions. Offers are again coming with more conditions: financing, inspection, and more extended closing periods. The fear of overpaying in a flat market feels real.

Inflation is the big issue everyone is avoiding

As much as we’d all like lower rates, inflation just won’t ease up. The core inflation figures (the ones the Bank of Canada monitors most closely) remain too high, especially in services. That’s why economists like Scotiabank’s Derek Holt say the bank is “still fighting the last inflation fight.”

For buyers, this suggests that mortgage rates are unlikely to fall significantly in the near future. Variable-rate borrowers will stay cautious, and fixed-rate seekers will continue searching for the best short-term deals, banking on future cuts, yet not during this summer.

Sellers are experiencing the shift too 

I’ve noticed a few listings lately where showings slowed down just days after the Bank’s announcement. Not because the homes weren’t desirable, but because uncertainty creates hesitation. People want to move, but not if they believe the market might drop, or rates could climb again. Others are at their limit. In high-debt provinces like Ontario and B.C., rising mortgage renewals are starting to impact households. They are spending more on debt and less on everything else, including new homes.

The labour market still seems strong. Canada added 83,000 jobs in June, which looks promising, until you examine it more closely. Behind those figures, experts like CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld see signs of tiredness. Job growth is slowing in some key sectors, and that also impacts consumer confidence.

So, what implications does this have for real estate?

For me, as a realtor, this indicates one thing: we’re in a “wait and see” market.

If you’re a buyer, don’t wait for perfect timing—focus on what you can afford now, with today’s rate. Waiting for a drop that might not happen could cost you the right home.

If you’re a seller, price your home wisely and present it well. Buyers are cautious but still making purchases—when the value is clear.

If you’re renewing, speak with a mortgage broker early. Higher payments are a reality for many, and options are available, but you must plan ahead.

Back at the table, Priya and Jaden decided to move forward with a bit more caution, but with clarity. “We might not get the lowest rate,” Jaden said, “But if we find the right house, we’re not waiting around forever.”

With rates staying steady and inflation continuing, real estate decisions now focus on understanding the market rather than timing it.