COVID-19 has claimed over seven million lives worldwide, with more than one million deaths in the United States alone, and around 60,000 in Canada. In addition to the loss of life, the pandemic has left millions with lasting health problems and weaknesses in global supply chains and healthcare systems. Despite the devastation caused by COVID-19, some experts warn that the next pandemic could be even more severe.
Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, explores this possibility in his new book, “The Big One: How We Must Prepare for Future Deadly Pandemics.” Osterholm argues that while COVID-19 was both highly infectious and dangerous, it could have been much worse, especially if it had combined its rapid spread with the much higher fatality rates seen in earlier coronaviruses like SARS and MERS, which killed up to 35% of those infected.
Recent discoveries of new coronaviruses in bats, which possess both high infectiousness and lethality, emphasize the potential for a “big one.” If a future virus spreads like COVID-19, but kills at much higher rates, the consequences would be catastrophic. Influenza viruses are also a major concern, as history shows they can cause devastating pandemics, such as the 1918 flu.
Osterholm emphasizes that viruses most likely to cause future pandemics are those that spread through the air and infect people before symptoms appear, making them hard to contain. Once such a virus begins circulating in a connected world, the containment of it becomes almost impossible.
The United States, according to Osterholm, is currently unprepared for this scenario. In recent years, the government offices responsible for pandemic readiness have been disassembled, leaving the country without a coordinated response plan. Vaccine production remains a major weakness, and existing methods would be too slow to meet global demand quickly. While mRNA vaccine technology could allow for faster and more flexible vaccine development, progress has stalled due to policy decisions and lack of funding.
Honest and transparent communication is also important in a crisis. Osterholm believes that scientists and officials should: admit what they do and don’t know, update the public as knowledge evolves, and avoid overpromising, or sugarcoating the truth. He suggests that instead of relying on broad lockdowns, officials could have used real-time hospital data to guide local responses, much like calling for “snow days” when health systems are overwhelmed.
Finally, Osterholm calls on citizens to get involved by supporting public health organizations, advocating for trust policy, and staying informed. Also, that individuals can’t manufacture vaccines, but they can push for better preparedness and resist misinformation or harmful laws.
Overall, Osterholm points to the fact that the world must learn from COVID-19 and act now to prepare for an even deadlier pandemic, because the next big one may be only a matter of time. However, this is only a precaution in case this happens again, and I want to be clear that this article from Osterholm is not saying that it will. It is to inform individuals of just how unprepared we were last time, and how we should have backup plans in case we will need it in the future.
Stay in the loop with exclusive news, stories, and insights—delivered straight to your inbox. No fluff, just real content that matters. Sign up today!
