Mathematical modelling predicts COVID-19 scenarios

BY PAUL JUNOR

As the COVID -19 pandemic continues to exert a global impact, many are concerned about its far-reaching effects. The: social effect, economic impact, political fallout, financial toll, psychological shock and spiritual consequences have turned the world upside down.

In order to make sense of what is happening, scientists, politicians, bureaucrats and analysts have resorted to mathematical modelling. It is defined as, “A process that uses math to represent, analyse, make predictions, or otherwise provide insight into real-world phenomena.” It has become an important predictive tool that is used to foresee the fallout from the COVID-19 crisis globally and nationally.

In elementary school, students are exposed to Patterning and Algebra as a unit in their Mathematics curriculum. This is intended to expose them to the importance of understanding mathematical relationships in terms of numerical, graphical and algebraic connections between variables (cause and effect).

In high school, students build on this foundation to study linear and non-linear relations from Grade 9-12. They learn about algebraic, graphical and numerical models in terms of linear, quadratic and exponential relations.

These models are simply representations of real-life situations and contexts. Models have applications in diverse disciplines, and can be used in natural sciences (biology, physics, chemistry) and social sciences (economics, psychology, sociology, political science).

In Ontario, the provincial government has used mathematical modelling to conceive worst-case and best-case scenarios from the COVID-19 outbreak. There are certain specific steps that must be followed. These include: defining a problem, making assumptions, identifying your variables, getting a solution, analysing, interpreting and reporting results (m3challenge.siam.org).

In an update titled, “COVID-19: Modelling and Potential Scenarios Ontario’s Action Plan” released on April 3^rd, 2020 by Public Health Ontario, it was predicted that up to 100,000 Ontarians could likely have died over the pandemic period if the province had not followed stringent public health protocols. With no intervention there could be up to 6,000 deaths and 300,000 cases. With extreme prevention, there would have been 200 deaths and 12,500 cases. Under current intervention, there could be 1,600 deaths and 80,000 cases.

Two weeks later in an update from the Ontario government on Monday, April 20^th, 2020, new modelling indicated that there would be less than 20,000 COVID-19 cases during the first wave of the pandemic. There will be far less than the 80,000 that was originally predicted, with a peak occurring earlier than what was expected in May.

On Monday, April 20^th, Premier Doug Ford made a statement, “Today, we saw new modelling that shows there’s some light at the end of the tunnel. The numbers clearly show that the steps we have taken as a province are working because of you.”

The modelling update revealed that:

• Community transmission of the virus has levelled off
• Outbreaks in long-term care homes and aggregate settings are increasing
• More must be done to help those most susceptible
• Ontario is on a path of best-case scenario rather than worst-case scenario.

According to Doug Ford, “The modelling clearly demonstrates that we are making progress in our fight against this deadly virus. That’s due to the actions of all Ontarians, those who are staying home and practicing physical distancing and the heroic efforts of our frontline health care workers.”

The closure of schools, non-essential business and banning of all public gatherings is in effect until May 12^th, 2020, and it is expected that the curve will be flattened by then. As the Ontario government continues to update the numbers, there is much hope and expectation that it will be far less than it is predicted. In the mean time, we can all collectively do our part to help reduce the chance and possibility of being affected and infected by this deadly and contagious virus by praising social and physical distancing.

Reference Link

m3challenge.siam.org